From: Morning Consult
To: Scott Jenkins,
Subject: Morning Consult Energy: Poll of Cap and Trade Opinions among Independents, Democrats and Republicans
Date: Thu Jun 05 17:40:52 MDT 2014


This poll was conducted from May 29-June 1, 2014, among a national sample of 1,754 likely 2014 voters. The interviews were conducted online and the data were weighted to approximate a target sample of likely voters based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, region, annual household income, home ownership status and marital status. Results from the full survey have a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.
ELECTORAL IMPACT OF CAP AND TRADE IN 2014   Nearly 50 percent of Democrats said they were more likely to vote for a member who supported ‘cap and trade.’ That support decreased to 35 and 20 percent from Independents and Republicans, respectively. Around 40 percent for each party said the support would make no difference. 
MAJORITY APPROVE OF ‘CAP AND TRADE’ ABSENT POTENTIAL COSTS A large majority of Democrats approve ‘cap and trade’ systems, with 82 percent saying the favor limits on greenhouse gas emissions. The majority of Independents and Republicans approve of a cap and trade system, but at lower rates of 68 and 54 percent respectively. 
…BUT, SUPPORT HINGES ON THE DEGREE TO WHICH IT EFFECTS ELECTRIC BILLS AND GREENHOUSE GASES People are less likely to support a cap and trade proposal if they are told it will increase a monthly electric bill by $20 while reducing greenhouse gases by 20 percent. Republicans were the most likely to say they would be less likely to support a cap and trade bill if it increased their electric bills.
Respondents across all three parties were far less likely to support a cap and trade system if it increased their electricity bills by $20 but decreased greenhouse gases by only 5 percent. Those who said they would be less likely to support ‘cap and trade’ increased by 13, 8, and 2 percentage points from the Democratic, Independent, and Republican Party, respectively. 
However, when told the proposal would reduce greenhouse gases by 20 percent and increase bills by only $5, a plurality of respondents from the Democrats and Independents said they would be more likely to support ‘cap and trade,’ polling at 57 and 49 percent, respectively. Still, more Republicans said they were less likely to support ‘cap and trade’ at 41 percent.
PARTISANS SPLIT ON WHETHER CAP AND TRADE WILL CREATE OR REDUCE JOBS. Significant differences arose when it came to the effect of carbon emissions regulations on jobs. Democrats were the most likely to think it would create jobs, with just under 40 percent. A nearly identical number said it would have a neutral effect on job loss and creation. Independents were less likely to think cap and trade would create jobs, with under 30 percent saying it would produce an increase in jobs. Just over 40 percent of Independents said carbon emissions regulations would lead to a loss in jobs. Over 50 percent of Republicans said the system would lead to people losing their jobs.