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GWPF Samizdat
19 October 2020
| | Macron threatens UK with energy blockade |
Science crisis deepens as UK Government now doubts its own scientific advisers |
1) Macron threatens UK with energy blockade
Daily Express, 19 October 2020
1) Macron threatens UK with energy blockade
Daily Express, 19 October 2020
French president Emmanuel Macron confirmed that the EU would launch a devastating energy embargo against the UK if Boris Johnson refuses to give in on fisheries.
Emmanuel Macron reacted furiously to Boris Johnson's claims that trade talks are "over" between the UK and EU. Mr Macron has played hardball in the talks on fisheries, insisting on Thursday that French fishermen would "not be sacrificed" for the sake of a deal.
However, if the UK leaves the EU without a deal then French fishermen could faced being banned from British waters.
In response, the French President has signalled the EU would launch a devastating energy embargo against the UK unless Boris Johnson gives in on fisheries.
Following the EU summit in Brussels on Friday, Mr Macron told French radio that if the UK does not allow French fishermen in its waters, the EU would have to block the UK's energy supplies to the European market.
He suggested the right to fish in British waters was worth 650 million euros to EU fishermen, but that access to European energy markets was worth up to £2.3billion (€2.5bn) to the UK.
Full story
* Blackout fears over National Grid cables from the Continent
* Our reliance on energy imports is storing up trouble
2) Science crisis deepens as UK Government now doubts its own scientific advisers
The Times, 17 October 2020
Cabinet ministers, normally loyal backbench MPs and even those around the prime minister have begun questioning “the science” and are increasingly distrustful of those whose advice was once seen as gospel.
When Britain was about to enter its lockdown in March Boris Johnson was explicit: the government would “follow the science” to fight the pandemic.
A few months later, with debate raging over how to ease restrictions, there was less talk about following science and more of being guided by it.
With the country facing another widespread economic shutdown with no clear end date, the emphasis has changed again.
Cabinet ministers, normally loyal backbench MPs and even those around the prime minister have begun questioning “the science” and are increasingly distrustful of those whose advice was once seen as gospel.
“We’ve begun to hate the scientists,” said one Tory MP who has supported the government on all the votes on restrictions. “You’ve got these guys on Sage briefing journalists, going on the telly saying the PM must bring in a national lockdown. Why are they allowed to do that? You are either part of the team or you’re not. You can be an independent scientist and say what you like. You can’t be part of Sage and go on telly saying they need to do this.”
Another said: “The only reason [Chris] Whitty and [Sir Patrick] Vallance are calling for harsher measures is they’re shitting themselves over the public inquiry. They don’t want to face questions on whether their advice was the reason for 10,000 deaths.”
Downing Street insists that Mr Johnson has faith in Sage and the chief medical and scientific officers. However, there is irritation at the assertive way the scientific advisers are pushing their preferred course of action.
“Leaking is not well received by government — especially when it comes from advisers promoting their own interpretation of events,” one cabinet minister said.
“There is huge sympathy for the position the prime minister is in doing this incredibly difficult balancing act. It is unhelpful if one side of the argument is leaking aggressively and saying we are all doomed.
“You have to remember that [going back to March] the scientists’ most gloomy prognostications never happened. That must affect the confidence in ‘the science’ now.”
Downing Street was blindsided last month when Sage’s suggestion of a national circuit breaker to control the virus’s spread was leaked before many people in No 10 had heard about it.
“Sage, in terms of briefing to the press, is out of control,” one person close to No 10 said. “If you have a serious briefing with Sage it will probably leak within hours. You start to question people’s motives. As soon as you are sitting across from someone and you’re thinking, ‘Are they telling me that because they want me to know it or because that’s what they want to brief out?’, you’ve got a serious problem in relationships. Ministers are questioning what they’re being told.”
There is also concern that the scientists are using, or being used by, Labour. Sir Keir Starmer is known to have had confidential briefings from Sage members before calling for a full national lockdown. “They should know it just makes it more difficult for Boris to do it because it looks like he is following Starmer,” one adviser said.
However, scientific advisers are exasperated, too. Since Sage called for tough action a month ago, the government has issued work-from-home advice that has largely been ignored, and introduced a “rule of six” that actually relaxed restrictions on meeting indoors. “A lot of these measures have been useless”, one senior scientist said.
Advisers have been calling for more support for people told to isolate by contact tracers, after surveys showed that people were going to work out of financial necessity. There are fears that the NHS Test and Trace system has missed its moment to stay on top of the pandemic and is unlikely to catch up with spiralling infections. News that some consultants working for the scheme have been paid £6,250 a day have added to disillusionment among academics who are not paid for advising the government.
“If I added up all the hours I and others have spent advising the government and if we had been paid at these rates, then we could all retire to the Seychelles. No, we could buy the Seychelles,” Professor Stephen Reicher, of the Independent Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviours, said.
Critics of Sage have demanded that there be greater economic input into decision-making to balance the models created by specialists. Some Sage members, uncomfortable at the influence they wield, have made the same point themselves. Some advisers are framing their arguments in economic terms.
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3) East Antarctica was up to 6°C warmer than today during Medieval Warm Period, new study
Kenneth Richard, NoTricksZone, 15 October 2020
As recently as 2,000 to 1,000 years ago, East Antarctica was so warm (~6°C warmer than present) that its lakes were filled with 60 to 80 meters more meltwater than exists in lake basins today.
Stable isotope (δ18O) record from Taylor Dome ice core and paleotemperature reconstruction. A reference line for 0 ΔT (°C) is shown in red, representing deviation from modern temperatures. Modified from Steig et al. (2000).
Thermal legacy of a large paleolake in Taylor Valley, East Antarctica as evidenced by an airborne electromagnetic survey
"Resistivity data suggests that active permafrost formation has been ongoing since the onset of lake drainage, and that as recently as 1,000 – 1,500 yr BP, lake levels were over 60 m higher than present. This coincides with a warmer than modern paleoclimate throughout the Holocene inferred by the nearby Taylor Dome ice core record. … Stable isotope records from Taylor Dome (located roughly 100 km west of the MDVs) indicate mean annual air temperatures ca. 4-9 °C lower than modern during the LGM (Steig et al., 2000).”
"Between 12,000–6,000 yr BP, Taylor Dome ice core record indicates that regional temperatures were up to 5 °C warmer than modern conditions (Fig. 2) (Steig et al., 2000).”
"Permafrost age calculations indicate late Holocene lake level high-stands (up to ~81 masl, 63 m higher than modern Lake Fryxell) roughly 1.5 to 1 ka BP that would have filled both Lake Fryxell and Lake Hoare basins (Fig. 3b). … Taylor Dome ice core records show a highly variable Holocene, with short lived peaks up to + 6 °C above modern temperatures between 1-2 ka BP (Steig et al., 2000).”
"Lake levels were higher potentially during and after the LGM when an ice dam blocked the mouth of TV, allowing for lake levels to increase by over 280 m compared to modern level. Taylor Dome ice core records indicate an abrupt warming of >15 °C from 15 – 12 ka BP, (Steig et al., 2000), which may have coincided with the maximum lake level of GLW.”
"Short lived changes in temperature such as a 6 °C increase in the late Holocene could have resulted in anywhere between 60 to 80 m of lake level rise and subsequent drawdown.”
This substantial regional warmth can also be verified by the 1,000-year-old elephant seal remains that document a time when Antarctica was sea ice free 2,400 kilometers south of where sea ice free conditions occur today (Koch et al., 2019). Elephant seals require sea ice free conditions to breed, and the same locations where they used to breed during the Medieval Warm Period are today buried in sea ice.
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4) Global climate events over last 3,200 years may have caused variations in Indian summer monsoon
Press Trust of India, 1 October 2020
New Delhi, Oct 1 (PTI) Global climatic events like the Roman Warm Period, Medieval Climate Anomaly, and the Little Ice Age may have had significant impacts on India''s landscape, vegetation, and socio-economic growth, with abrupt shifts in the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) coinciding with these climatic events, a study by Indian researchers has found.
The study by the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, an institute of the Department of Science & Technology, shows wet monsoon conditions in the North-Western Himalaya between 1200 and 550 BCE.
This condition prevailed till 450 AD, coinciding with the Roman Warm Period. It was followed by reduced precipitation and a weak ISM till 950 AD and then strengthened during the Medieval Climate Anomaly between 950 and 1350 AD.
During the Little Ice Age, there was a pronounced reduction in monsoon precipitation.
The study carried out with lake sediments from Rewalsar Lake, a freshwater lake in Mandi district of Himachal Pradesh, could resolve the long debate among scientists about whether such events were local or global.
Sediments from this lake preserve signature that can be used as proxies to understand monsoon variability in the past.
In a recent study published in the journal ''Quaternary International'', researchers obtained grain size data, stable isotope ratios of carbon and nitrogen, total organic carbon (TOC), and total nitrogen data from the sediments of the lake.
They retrieved a sediment core of 15 metre length from the centre of the lake at a water depth of about 6.5 metres using a piston corer, which was used as a sample.
The chronology of Rewalsar Lake sediment was then established based on the Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (a form of mass spectrometry to separate a rare isotope from an abundant neighbouring mass) 14C radiocarbon dates of fourteen samples and the age ranges from approximately 2950 years to 200 years ago.
Calculation of total organic carbon TOC, Total Nitrogen TN, and depleted Carbon isotope ratio values during the interval 1200 to 550 BCE indicated wet monsoon conditions in the North-Western Himalaya.
This condition prevailed till 450 AD, coinciding with the Roman Warm Period. This was followed by reduced precipitation and a weak ISM till 950 AD. The ISM became comparatively stronger during the Medieval Climate Anomaly between 950 to 1350 AD. During the Little Ice Age, there was a pronounced reduction in ISM precipitation, as indicated by relatively low C/N ratio and decreased TOC content.
The findings pointed out a revival of wet climatic conditions with a strong ISM around 1600 AD following the Little Ice Age, which prevails in present times.
The variability of ISM in the historical past needs to be ascertained to understand present, and future behaviour of ISM as climate shifts and water supply has dictated the flourish and demise of ancient civilisations, the study said.
5) Roman Warm Period Was 2°C Warmer Than Today, New Study Shows
Daily Mail, 24 July 2020
The Mediterranean Sea was 3.6°F (2°C) hotter during the Roman Empire than other average temperatures at the time, a new study claims.
Comparison of the records from Sicily Channel studied in this work (thick dark blue line) in comparison with other samples – Alboran Sea (thick light blue line), Minorca Basin (thick red line) and Aegean Sea (thick dark and light green lines). They support the claim that the Roman Period saw a 3.6°F rise in temperatures in the Med
The Empire coincided with a 500-year period, from AD 1 to AD 500, that was the warmest period of the last 2,000 years in the almost completely land-locked sea.
The climate later progressed towards colder and arid conditions that coincided with the historical fall of the Empire, scientists claim.
Spanish and Italian researchers recorded ratios of magnesium to calcite taken from skeletonized amoebas in marine sediments, an indicator of sea water temperatures, in the Sicily Channel.
The study identifies the Roman period (1-500 AC) as the warmest period of the last 2,000 years. Map A shows the central-western Mediterranean Sea. Red triangle shows the location of the sample studied, while the red circles are previously-found marine records used for the comparison. Map B shows the Sicily Channel featuring surface oceanographic circulation and sample location.
[...] ‘This pronounced warming during the Roman Period is almost consistent with other marine records from Atlantic Ocean,’ the team say in their research paper, published in Scientific Reports.
This climate phase corresponds to what is known as the ‘Roman Climatic Optimum’ characterised by prosperity and expansion of the Empire, giving warmth and sunlight to crops.
Roman Climatic Optimum, a phase of warm stable temperatures across much of the Mediterranean heartland, covers the whole phase of origin and expansion of the Roman Empire.
The greatest time of the Roman Empire coincided with the warmest period of the last 2,000 years in the Mediterranean.
After the Roman Period, a general cooling trend developed in the region with several minor oscillations in temperature.
The climate then transitioned from wet to arid conditions and this could have marked the decline of the golden period of the Roman Empire after AD 500.
These new record correlated with data from other areas of the Mediterranean – the Alboran Sea, Menorca basin and Aegean Sea.
‘We hypothesise the potential link between this Roman Climatic Optimum and the expansion and subsequent decline of the Roman Empire.’
The study provides high resolution and precision data on how the temperatures evolved over the last 2,000 years in the Mediterranean area.
It also identifies a warming phase that’s different during the Roman Empire in the Mediterranean area and is focused on the reconstruction of the sea surface temperature over the last 5,000 years.
Full story
6) SUVs are the secret winners of Germany's subsidies for electric cars
AFP, 18 October 2020
It appears that SUV manufacturers in particular benefit from the environmental bonus for electric cars.
According to a survey by the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung”, car companies can hardly keep up with the production of SUVs with plug-in hybrid engines, so that delivery times for these models are getting longer and longer.
In this context, the Green politician Cem Özdemir spoke of “state-subsidized climate fraud”. “Many drive almost exclusively with the fossil combustion engine and use e-mobility only to accelerate the start at the traffic lights,” said Özdemir. “That has devastating consequences for the credibility of the industry and for climate protection.” Politicians are called upon.
The FDP transport politician Oliver Luksic warned that the auto industry was being “politically broken down” and also criticized the “insane amount of subsidies”. It must be checked how much the battery is actually used in everyday life.
Full story
7) Tilak Doashi: A realistic look at China’s greenwashing
Forbes, 17 October 2020
While China talks a good game on climate change, for the Chinese Communist Party staying in power is its highest priority.
President Xi Jinping recently told the UN General Assembly that China aims for carbon neutrality by 2060, in addition to its previous target to hit peak carbon emissions by 2030 which it promised for the 2015 Paris Agreement. The global press greeted this announcement with enthusiasm, with headlines exclaiming “an unexpectedly forthright pledge to galvanize global action against the climate crisis”, “a significant step in the fight against climate change”, “an audacious bid to lead the world into a low carbon future”, and so on. The Guardian gushed that China “will give fresh impetus to UN efforts to galvanize action on the ‘climate crisis’”.
Credulous Western environmentalists and government officials expect China to play a lead role in “combating” climate change, especially since President Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement. Less credulous and hard-bitten China observers may be somewhat more reserved in their judgements of China’s official statements of international diplomacy. China’s trumpeted plans to reduce reliance on coal, however, conflict with data showing consumption and production trending up not down.
China’s annual carbon dioxide emissions nearly tripled between 2000 and 2019, and now account for just under 30% of total global emissions which makes the country the largest emitter by far. The US, the second largest emitter, accounts for 14.5% of global emissions while India, the third largest, contributes 7.3%.
After some reduction in coal demand for a few years, China’s demand increased from 2016 to 2019 by 3.3%, and its demand climbed in June this year to near its peak levels in 2013. In the first half of 2020 China approved 23 gigawatts-worth of new coal power projects, more than the previous two years combined; in 2018 and in 2019, China commissioned more coal power than the rest of the world combined.
As the single largest contributor of carbon dioxide emissions, China would be expected to be under intense international pressure to reduce them. But the country has a deft hand at international diplomacy. From the earliest negotiations in the UN’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) beginning in 1994, the country has positioned itself as the defender of “Third World” interests, along with other large developing countries such as India, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia.
The Kyoto Protocol, brought into force in 2005, established a two track system whereby the developed “Annex 1” countries adopted binding emission commitments while the developing “non-Annex 1” countries not only had no such commitments but were expected to be recipients of “climate finance” aid from the Annex 1 group for assistance in mitigating and adapting to climate change.
Thereby, climate policy goals effectively got converted into an exercise in massive international income re-distribution. As German economist and UN climate policy official Ottmar Edenhofer said in 2010, “Climate policy has almost nothing to do anymore with environmental protection. The next world climate summit in Cancun is actually an economy summit during which the distribution of the world’s resources will be negotiated.”
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